And The Valley Shook: FanPosts

ESPN Gameday - is it worth it for LSU games?

nepomo — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:20:19 -0000

For out of state guys like me, will ESPN Gameday help me see LSU games that aren't on CBS? I've tried looking at schedules and what not but cant seem to figure this out. I probably dont want to drop $100 for one game (nor will I be able to have much of an argument when I propose it to the wife) but if I can get 2 hopefully 3 games out of it, I think I'll get it. Any thoughts?

Opening Song

geauxtigers33 — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 03:24:37 -0000

Hey ya'll I love going to the LSU games and I have always loved the song they play before every game inside Death Valley. But, unfortunately I have never found out what the song is called. Does anyone know what the title of it is? (I'm pretty sure in the lyrics they say "In the Home of Baton Rouge" or something like that)

If you could help me out with this I would greatly appreciate it!

GEAUX TIGERS

Fastest LSU Football Players - Top 10

nepomo — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 14:41:36 -0000

I think we all know who the fastest player on the team is. Although it is interesting that there was a 40 yard race at Florida ,and their 100 m track star, Jeff Demps, lost. Jeff is just as fast as Trindon Holiday. He ran a 10.01 in the olympic trials.. and he just graduated high school.

Anyway. I think we would obviously put Trindon Holiday at the top of the list and then maybe Demetrius Byrd, Richard Murphy, Chad Jones...?

Chuck Norris meet Jacob Hester. You can call him Mr. Hester.

nepomo — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 15:42:07 -0000

Found this on: http://texastailwind.wordpress.com/category/lsu-football/

its pretty hilarious

TigerBait! . . . and little known facts about Jacob Hester

January 7, 2008 · 1 Comment

I’ve already written about the big game, but tonight is the night. I’m nervous, but sticking with my prediction of LSU winning . . . 34-24. In honor of my favorite current Tiger, RB Jacob Hester, I’m going to steal a few ideas from timtebowfacts.com and give you some Jacob Hester facts:

When you open a can of whoop ass . . . Jacob Hester jumps out.
Jacob Hester’s house has no doors . . . only the walls he walks through.
Jacob Hester won the Tour de France on a unicycle.
Jacob Hester knows the EXACT location of Carmen SanDiego.
Jacob Hester can touch MC Hammer.
Jacob Hester grinds his coffee with his own teeth and then boils the water with his rage.
Jacob Hester has the greatest Poker-Face of all time. He won the 1983 World Series of Poker, despite holding only a Joker, a Get out of Jail Free Monopoly card, a 2 of clubs, 7 of spades and a green #4 card from the game UNO.
If you Google search ‘Jacob Hester getting his ass kicked’ you will generate zero results. It just doesn’t happen.
The show Survivor had the original premise of putting people on an island with Jacob Hester. There were no survivors, and nobody is brave enough to go to the island to retrieve the footage.
Terry Tate looks over his shoulder in offices for Jacob Hester.
There are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Jacob Hester lives in Louisiana.
Jacob Hester has counted to infinity…. twice.
It takes Jacob Hester 17 minutes to watch 60 Minutes.
Jacob Hester ordered a Big Mac at Burger King . . . and got one.
They say Jacob Hester bleeds “purple and gold”. They are wrong . . . Jacob Hester doesn’t bleed.

GEAUX TIGERS!

top 25 poles rigged

lsuboy2 — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 04:49:28 -0000

usc being # 1 is messed up LSU should be # 1 instead of them because Lsu is awesome and they suck ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ps. like I said rigged ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !

Rigged Rigged Rigged !!

1!!

!1111!!11!!!1111!1! ! !! ! @! 1!!1!!!111!!1!11eat y hgeaabhghage agbahb b g by h khb yt h g hg iug g g h n h hy j r d fsfd w f e e r eh g e tg yy f jh d f rr y fty fr

LSU alum and Falcons Rookie Chevis Jackson has his own blog!

SeaninSoCal — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:00:06 -0000

LSU alum and Falcons rookie corner Chevis Jackson just posted a fantastic new blog where he blogs about getting ready for his first NFL training camp and what he's looking forward to and gives a shout out to LSU and some of his favorite players:

http://www.prolebrity.com/rookie-life/#more-316

It's awesome to see athletes like Chevis embracing blogging and giving us insights into what their lives are really like.

We're rooting for you Chevis!!!

Making my commitment to LSU

HighSchoolSteeler — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:04:51 -0000

Not as a player or student though...I just thought I'd introduce myself. As my name suggests I'm a Huge Steelers fan livin' in NY, a far way from Louisiana. Not until recently have I taken much interest in NCAA football but as I get closer to college I thought it would be a good idea to pick a favorite. So I'm still pretty new at the NCAA level. LSU is what I came up with as the team to follow. Not because you guys won the whole show last year but 1. I really like the way LSU fans are so intense. As a Steeler fan for my entire life, I can relate to that. I also get a hell of a lot of enjoyment watching LSU light it up on the field. So I'd thought I'd get that out of the way and I'll just sit back and read the blogs, occasionally posting a few new threads here and there.

Peace.

FEAR the HAT

LSURay — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:48:25 -0000

ESPN on the College Football Page has some really good stuff on LSU and the SECW.

Also here is a link on a TSN piece on RJF. Pelini said before he left that RJF was the best player on the field in the BCS Title game last year.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=432090

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sec/0-1-10/LSU-to-repeat-in-the-West.html

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?id=3467569

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDQ5TEXLrUg

And a fun ND/NBC contract parody

http://ballhype.com/video/notre_dame_parody/

My Bad...

TigerBait — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 04:32:39 -0000

What I MEANT to say is that the 'Eaters will take the first one and the Tigers will win the last two.

Holy Crap, what a game! Louis Coleman is da man! And it was nice to see the Pontiff name on the bases during that rally - good times, good times...

It'll be interesting to watch tomorrow's pitching duel. So far, although UCI's pitching is very good, I think LSU hitting has proven to be up to the task. And LSU's Bullpen may be the key tomorrow. Should be fun!

Prediction: LSU 5, UCI 4

TigerBait — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 17:40:17 -0000

The Eaters are probably the toughest test for the Tigers so far this year. I don't see LSU getting double digit hits in this first one. Gorgen appears to be the real deal - I doubt he gives up more than 4 hits or so. However, LSU will put at least one out of the park. Likely that will happen with runners. Likely it will happen in late innings as Gorgen tires or relief pitchers are on the mound.

I can see LSU trailing by one in this one until the 7th or 8th. Then a two run homer seals the deal.

Or, you know, something like that.

Eaters take the second game. Tigers win on Monday.

NCAA Regionals: A Conference Analysis

Purple Reign — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 05:31:55 -0000

A post on Nebraska's SB Nation site, Corn Nation, got be motivated on the subject of other conferences whining that the SEC got too many teams in the NCAA Tournament with nine. Their complaint, which I somewhat agree with was as follows:

Arkansas goes 0-2. They didn’t make the SEC post-season tourney and yet they were selected for the NCAA tourney. Clearly they did not belong. I hate it that the SEC just automatically gets a gob of teams in the tourney because they’re the SEC.

Which is why I weep no tears for Florida. At least they were in the SEC tourney, but, quick, look at that list of schools that are gone and name another conference besides the SEC.

The "list" they refer to is the teams that went 0-2 in the tournament that included Florida and Arkansas. Well, duh, if you have 50 percent more teams than any other conference, you're bound to have a few two-and-outs. I also could have named the Pac 10 (Cal).

Anyway, onto the analysis.

Below is listed each conference that received more than one bid (and the Big 10) and how that league's teams fared against their respective seeds. What I mean by this is, if you were a No. 1-seed and won your Regional, you get a zero. If you came second, you got a minus-one, etc. A No. 2-seed who won the regional would get a plus-one, but a No. 2 that went two-and-out would get a minus-two.

Conference	Tms	Result	Avg.
Colonial	         2	1	0.50
C-USA		5	2	0.40
Other		18	5	0.28
ACC		6	0	0.00
Big West	         4	0	0.00
West Coast	2	0	0.00
Big South	         2	0	0.00
Sun Belt	         2	0	0.00
Pac 10		5	-1	-0.20
SEC		9	-2	-0.22
Big 12		6	-3	-0.50
Big East	         2	-1	-0.50
Big 10		1	-1	-1.00

You'll notice that the top conferences are on the bottom, which comes with earning the most high seeds (because there's no way to get a plus-one if you're a No. 1 seed). On the flip side, "Other" scores well because any win by a No. 4 seed will garner at least a plus-one.

That said, the SEC fared rather well. Yes, Florida was one of two No. 2 seeds (Dallas Baptist) to flame out at 0-2 and Arkansas underperformed as a No. 3. However, the Big 12 was held back by Corn Nation's own Nebraska squad that was a No. 1 seed and didn't even make it to the final two of its regional. The Cornhuskers joined Long Beach State as the only schools to earn that distinction. Fellow Big 12 regional host Oklahoma State also couldn't close the deal at home, leaving the league with one super regional team (Texas A&M). That's right, one fewer than the SEC.

In the SEC, Vanderbilt underperformed as a No. 2, but Kentucky and Ole Miss made up for it as three-seeds that advanced to the regional championship games.

All in all, Conference USA appears to be the most disrespected conference out there. Rice was expected to win its regional and did, but No. 3-seeds Tulane and Houston gave Florida State and Texas A&M, respectively, runs for their money.

What does it all mean? Nothing mostly. It's baseball and on any given afternoon nearly anyone can beat anyone. One upset with a hot pitcher or a well-timed two-run double changes all these numbers and makes them mean something different. So complaining about it really doesn't mean anything.

Can you hear that in your ears of corn?

Regionals Day 2 Around the SEC and Louisiana

Richard Pittman — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 12:09:53 -0000

Louisiana was 3-0 yesterday. The SEC was 5-5, with Arkansas and Florida eliminated.

Tulane is in the driver's seat in their regional after beating Bucknell 4-1. If you had known Tulane would be playing Bucknell on the 2nd day, you would have guessed it would be an elimination game, but it wasn't. Tulane is in good shape to make it to a Super Regional.

As discussed, UNO beat Texas Southern to survive.

In the SEC, only LSU remains in the winner's bracket, as Alabama and South Carolina both lost. Kentucky lost their suspended game against Michigan but came back and won against Eastern Michigan to avoid elimination.

Florida was eliminated by Florida State by a score of 17-11, and Arkansas was eliminated by Stanford 5-1. Both of those teams had the unfortunate fate of meeting the #1 seed in the regional in a 2nd day elimination game.

Georgia barely managed to avoid elimination by beating Louisville 9-8. Vandy avoided elimination by beating Stony Brook. Ole Miss avoided elimination by beating Bethune-Cookman.

Except for LSU, a pretty mediocre day for the SEC, but a good day for Louisiana.

Wearing the Red, White and Blue

Purple Reign — Sat, 31 May 2008 20:44:13 -0000

Congrats are in order for former LSU Lady Tigers Seimone Augustus and Sylvia Fowles, who were among nine women named to the 2008 United States Women's Basketball Olympic Team that will be favored to win the gold medal at this year's Summer Olympics in Beijing, China.

The duo were the backbone of the LSU program over the last half decade as the Lady Tigers tied an NCAA record with five consecutive Final Four appearances. Each now plays in the WNBA.

Good for them and I'm sure they'll represent LSU well. Geaux USA!

Number 7 seed!

Poseur — Tue, 27 May 2008 01:58:09 -0000

LSU has won 20 straight games, which is bordering on ridiculous. Even more ridiculous, LSU has come from behind in 17 of those games. SEC title in tow, the postseason begins in earnest next wekk. The NCAA's given us a #7 seed, a home site, and a pretty great draw. I'm pretty pumped, but we have all week to hype this up.

It's feeling a little 1990s in here. Maybe I should go put on some flannel and listen to some Mudhoney.

Welcome to the new And The Valley Shook and SB Nation

clockwerks — Tue, 06 May 2008 05:52:17 -0000

Hey And The Valley Shook,

Today is the big day. We've switched your community over to the new SB Nation sports blog platform. My name is Trei, and I'm here to help you get adjusted to the new home we've built for you. If you have questions or trouble with the new system, post a comment in this thread and myself or one of the team (lovitt, sixfoot6 or odacrem) will try to point you in the right direction.

Before we begin, I want to let you know we still consider this a beta platform, so don't be surprised if you find a few bugs or if everything isn't exactly right yet. We hope you'll take the time to report any problems you encounter at bugreport@sbnation.com. We'll be continuing to make changes and improving things.

Please take a few minutes to read about what's new below. But if you just can't wait to jump in, here are some quick things to check out:

Sign up for your SB Nation network account and claim your old blog accounts
Once you're logged in, press your Z key in any thread with new comments
Explore your dashboard and setup your profile
Read the guide to the new FanPost editor
Install the FanShot bookmarklet and post videos to And The Valley Shook from YouTube or images from Flickr
Click the "Rec" button on posts and comments to help other people find the good stuff.
Customize display options on your Edit Settings page

What Has Changed

SB Nation Network Accounts - the Big Change

Readers across all of our blogs told us they wanted one account to use on every SB Nation blog. To make this work, we're requiring that everyone create a new SB Nation network account. In most cases you should be able to keep your old username, but a few of you may have to choose something new, since every other community in SB Nation will be going through this same transition. We tried to be as fair as possible in deciding who gets to keep which name, using a formula that takes into account length of membership and frequency of activity.

We want to make it as easy as possible for you to participate on all of our blogs, but we don't want to encourage everyone to start visiting rival team blogs and initiating flame wars. To maintain friendly communities we ask that you explicitly join each blog in order to participate. It's a two-click process, but it does means accepting each blog's community guidelines. Just as you join each blog individually, you can be banned on each blog individually.

You can claim old accounts from multiple SB Nation blogs, and your new username will be retroactively attached to all your old comments and diaries. So now you'll be able to access all your writings from your single profile page... like magic.

To get started, click here to claim your old blog accounts and create a new SB Nation network account.

FanPosts (the Section Formerly Known as Diaries)

We changed their name. Why? Because we took this major upgrade as an opportunity to leave behind some vocabulary that never made much sense for a sports blog. SB Nation is the network of, by and for fans, and these are the blog posts we make. So we call them FanPosts. When you're at a bar telling someone to check out your online sports opinions, you don't have to suggest they read your diary.

FanPosts are displayed differently on the homepage - we include your avatar to give more credit for the time you spend writing great posts. The new post editor has a WYSIWYG view that provides easy formatting. It also auto-saves drafts so you don't have to worry about losing your work when you compose a post within the web browser. And you can now associate teams, players and games with your posts: these tools promote your FanPosts on our new team, player and game pages - across the entire network.

The new system does not work like the old diary editor. For example, in HTML mode the new editor doesn't auto-create a new paragraph from two line breaks. But it does offer a whole array of new features. Look for the blinking help button on the right side of the FanPost editor for quick tips, and take a look at our full guide to writing FanPosts on the new platform.

IMPORTANT - if you write your posts in Microsoft Word or some other off-line editor, you will get the most reliable behavior if you cut & paste your post into the HTML view of the FanPost editor. And if you do that, remember to wrap <p></p> tags around each paragraph so your text doesn't run together.

Visual Redesign

This one is probably the most obvious change of all. Like other major websites working to improve readability for their audience, we've adopted a fixed-width layout optimized for the 1024 x 768 resolution used by the majority of And The Valley Shook and SB Nation network users. Use the switcher below the user menu if you prefer the wider layout designed for 1280 monitors. We've introduced a top navigation bar with quick links into old and new sections of the site. We also polished a few edges, made some things larger, others smaller and moved a few boxes here and there. More changes and adjustments to come.

Search

We've completely replaced the old search engine with a new one. We're excited to make it easier to find old posts and comments, but we've only taken our first pass on the tools we're offering. We're focused on making search even better than what you had before, so please know that we're aware search is missing key features and we're working on it.

What's New

Schedule, Scores, Stats and Roster

And The Valley Shook now has all the basic information about the LSU Tigers and hundreds of other teams. During games you'll see a regularly updated line score, and as the season progresses we'll track team stat totals and leaders. This is just our first step, so look for us to publish more detailed and archival stats in the future. The best part about all this sports data is that we've integrated it directly into the blog so. We now have special pages that aggregate all blog posts written about games, players and teams.

Recommending FanPosts

Some writing deserves more attention and more conversation. If you want to bump a FanPost up to the top and keep it there for awhile, just click the 'Rec' link under the body of the post. When a FanPost receives enough recommendations it will make the recommended list.

Auto-refreshing Comments

You no longer need to refresh the page to see new comments. If you're logged in, new comments will automatically appear on the page every few seconds. When you post a comment, the page will not refresh either. If you want to quickly cycle through all the new comments, you can press the C key on your keyboard. Unmark a new comment after you've read it with the X key. And use the Z key if you want to umark comments as you're cycling through them.

As you use these shortcuts to cycle through comments, press the R key to reply to the current comment. All these helpful keyboard shortcuts are listed at the top of each comments section for reference.

Recommending Comments

Now you can reward those folks who take the time to look up stats and make smart arguments in the comments. Next to each comment there is an 'actions' link that you can click to find the recommend and flag options.

Flagging Comments

To help the moderators on a site, we've built-in tools that let you flag comments that are spam, trolling or just plain inappropriate. Only moderators can see those flags.

FanShots

Many members of the community just want to post that one link, video, photo or quote, but don't need a full FanPost. We've got you covered: FanShots let you share YouTube videos, Flickr or PhotoBucket photos, quotes from articles, portions of chat transcripts, top 5 lists and simple links. If it's a video or image we'll put a thumbnail on the homepage when you post it.

For those of you who are experienced internet hunter-gatherers of LSU Tigers material, install the bookmarklet onto the links bar of your browser and share FanShots with the community from wherever on the web you find that killer quote or photo.

Avatars

Upload an image so folks can see your custom avatar on your profile, your FanPosts, and all your comments.

Network Profiles

Now that we have unified SB Nation network accounts, your profile will be your central hub for all of your activity on any blogs where you are a member.

Network bar

The top bar stays with you on all SB Nation blogs. It's a quick way to login and logout. When you're logged in, you'll see your avatar and screen name which links to your profile. The icon to the right leads to your Dashboard area where you can edit your settings, profile, account details and any FanPosts or FanShots you've published. As we add more blogs to the new SB Nation network, the My Blogs menu will be a handy way to navigate between the blogs you've joined.

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There are plenty more small changes and additions we've made, so please take a careful look around and explore this new system. We appreciate your patience and hope you'll help us improve the new platform for this and all the other SB Nation blogs.

And in case you missed it, you'll want to start by claiming your old blog accounts and creating a new SB Nation network account.

Forever LSU Book - We Need Stories!

Fri, 02 May 2008 15:42:49 -0000

Hello Tigers!

We need YOUR stories for our upcoming book coming in 2009!

n partnership with The Booksmith Group we are creating the Forever LSU memory book: a fun, oversized, high-end book crafted from the stories, traditions and folklore of the LSU alumni. Not only will the bulk of the book be your stories, but the book itself will be a unique tactile experience with inserts and memorabilia included. Your university. Your memories. Your LSU brought to life. The finished product is a must have for any Tiger's coffee table or office credenza.

The bottom line is our story isn't complete without your stories. We want to hear about your experiences as a student and how the tradition continues now as an alumnus.

If possible, we'd love to be able to be included in your newsletters, eblasts and would most certainly love placement on your websites... I can provide you assets. We have photos, a video sneak peek preview (you can check it out on Myspace or Facebook), etc.

Our deadline for story submission is May 31!

Visit us on Myspace: http://www.myspace.com/foreverlsubook

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1227082950

To submit your story, fill out this survey: http://www.zoomerang.com/Survey/survey.zgi?p=WEB227MVW4K7JQ

To take a peek at a few story examples, go here: http://lsualumni.wordpress.com/

To learn more about the project and to participate, please visit www.lsualumnibook.com.

TDs: The Runs Batted In of College Football Statistics (Part Two)

The Boy — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 02:48:38 -0000

Okay, so last time around, I talked about Points Per Play (PPP) as the football version of Slugging %. In baseball, OPS (On-Base + Slugging) is one of the most telling, easy, reliable stats around. It's great because it's flexible. There are two different ways to put together a strong OPS--either by getting on base a lot or by hitting for power--and the best hitters do both. You find consistency and explosiveness in one measure.

So if PPP is equivalent to Slugging % (explosiveness), what's equivalent to On-Base % (consistency)? Success Rate, that's what.

In its most basic form, Success Rate is simply the percentage of time in which a play is deemed `successful'. It is a measure I culled from Football Outsiders and tweaked to fit my own purposes. How is `success' determined?

Here are the rules according to down:

1st Down: 50% of necessary yardage. If it's 1st-and-10, you need 5 yards for 'success'.

2nd Down: 70% of necessary yardage (rounded up to the nearest yard, of course). If it's 2nd-and-10, you need 7 yards for 'success'. 2nd-and-15? 10 yards.

3rd and 4th Downs: 100% of necessary yardage. I figure this requires no explanation.

In all, any given play has about a 43% chance of `success.'

Success Rate measures consistency the same way that On-Base % does for baseball. It's a lot harder to score in baseball if you're not getting on-base. Sure, you can still hit a homerun, but in general, less people on-base leads to less scoring opportunities, which leads to less runs.

In football, a low success rate limits your chances in the same way. Sure, you can score on a 99-yard TD run, and sure, you can consistently gain 10 yards on 3rd-and-9 to sustain a drive (leading to something like a 33.3% success rate)...but you're playing with fire. The odds of consistently moving the ball like that are minimal.

To illustrate the usefulness of Success Rates, let's look at the success rates for each of the Big 12 Offenses.

1.    Texas Tech 53.6%
2.    Missouri 51.0%
3.    Oklahoma State 50.2%
4.    Kansas 50.1%
5.    Nebraska 48.8%
6.    Oklahoma 48.9%
7.    Texas 47.4%
8.    Texas A&M 45.7%
9.    Kansas State 45.5%
10.    Colorado 39.6%
11.    Baylor 38.5%
12.    Iowa State 36.5%

Aside from a couple exceptions (Nebraska above Texas?), that's pretty much a rundown of the conference's top offenses, is it not?

Success Rate is a fantastic tool, and I used it more than just about anything else when I was previewing Mizzou games this year (example here). It can be used to judge teams in every possible way--how they do in close games, how well they run (or defend the run), how well they play in the redzone, et cetera.

And it becomes an even better tool when teamed with the Points Per Play (PPP) measure we discussed in Part One. Quick recap: based on the average number of points scored from any yardline on the field, I came up with a way to create a `point value' for each play of a game by comparing the beginning value of a play compared to where it ended up. It is the "slugging %" to Success Rate's "on-base %" in the OPS equation. So if On-Base Plus Slugging = OPS, then what is Success Rate plus Points Per Play? S&P!

S&P, like Success Rate, is an extremely versatile tool. You can compare offenses, defenses, running backs, just about anything. To illustrate the usefulness of S&P, let's look at the four Heisman finalists.

Tim Tebow

PASSING: 52.5% success rate + 0.62 PPP = 1.15 S&P
RUSHING: 54.8% success rate + 0.54 PPP = 1.09 S&P
ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 54.6% success rate + 0.53 PPP = 1.08 S&P

Colt Brennan

PASSING: 53.7% success rate + 0.53 PPP = 1.07 S&P
RUSHING: 47.2% success rate + 0.38 PPP = 0.86 S&P
ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 52.9% success rate + 0.44 PPP = 0.97 S&P

Chase Daniel

PASSING: 51.4% success rate + 0.46 PPP = 0.97 S&P
RUSHING: 47.1% success rate + 0.38 PPP = 0.86 S&P
ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 50.4% success rate + 0.39 PPP = 0.90 S&P

For the three QB finalists, you can start to see how this single number--S&P--can take into account everything from Tebow's rushing TDs to Brennan's insane yardage totals to Daniel's nation-leading third down percentage. They had similar numbers, though when schedule strength is taken into account (I've got ways to do this, but not until I have everybody's games entered), Tebow comes out far ahead. It's why I'd have voted for him even though I wasn't remarkably impressed with the 20 mostly-short-yardage rushing TDs.

Okay, so I just came up with a complete different way to determine that Tim Tebow should have won the Heisman. Woo. I could have used yards and TDs to figure that out. What use do these new-fangled stats have if they're just going to lead to the same conclusions as the, uhh, old-fangled stats? That's where Darren McFadden comes in.

Darren McFadden

RUSHING: 46.8% success rate + 0.34 PPP = 0.81 S&P

And he was the QB in the WildHog Formation, so...

ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 48.3% success rate + 0.71 PPP = 1.19 S&P

As a point of comparison, McFadden's 0.81 S&P would have been #13 in the Big 12. Jorvorskie Lane (ATM) had a 1.09, DeMarco Murray (OU) a 0.97, and Chris Brown (OU) had a 0.85.

McFadden is obviously very good, but the consensus "best RB in college football" wasn't as effective at running the ball in 2007 as he was at being a threat to run the ball...if that makes any sense. With McFadden sharing the backfield, Felix Jones pulled off an insane 1.17 rushing S&P, and the WildHog was quite effective in giving McFadden the option of running, throwing, or handing to Jones and Peyton Hillis. But for every highlight reel run McFadden ripped off this season, there were about 10 1-yard runs. This is why a theoretically explosive offense like Arkansas' ground to a halt against good defenses like Auburn (lost 9-7) and Missouri (lost 38-7). The offense was perceived as better than it actually was, and its low success rate (44.6% for the season) and S&P (0.81...the same as stagnant Texas A&M's) betrayed it throughout the season.

(And here's another interesting stat: McFadden accounted for 111.04 `points' running the ball in 2007. Tebow accounted for 107.05.)

In other words, there's a reason why Darren McFadden didn't deserve the Heisman, no matter how good he looks in the open field. It wasn't his fault that Arkansas' passing game sucked, and it wasn't his fault that defenses did whatever they could to force other players to beat them...but you have to be more than a threat to win the Heisman--you have to still produce as well.

Okay, time for another plea. I really want to be able to test the limits of S&P, PPP, Success Rates, and lots of other stats I have yet to reveal, but I'm in need of some volunteers to help me plow through the remaining 2007 games. As I mentioned last time, games take about 30 minutes to enter (once you figure out what you're doing), and you can feel free to enter games for whichever team you like (other than the ones I've already done, anyway--Big 12, Hawaii, Florida, Arkansas).

If you want to help either shoot me a response on this thread with your e-mail address, or contact me at BillConnelly1@gmail.com. Thanks again.

LSU VS. Ohio state

lsuboy2 — Sun, 13 Jan 2008 02:59:58 -0000

Ohio state sucked . Matt Flynn did awesome at QB that game and definetly deserved the Most valuble player award . Keelin Williams did not have very many carries but was a beast when he did get the ball !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

# 1

lsuboy2 — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 05:49:09 -0000

LSU is national beast champions . There not as good as the 2003 championship team but still beast mode . It would be great to see another championship team in 2008 . Then we would be four time national champs 1958 , 2003 , 2007 , and hopefully 2008 champs . 2 loses this season I can understand the Kentuky lose but not the Arkansas game . Our defense sucked that day .

TDs: The Runs Batted In of College Football Statistics (Part One)

The Boy — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 00:29:26 -0000

Hey, this is The Boy from Rock M Nation. Congrats on the title...was really hoping we'd get a chance at you guys in NO, but alas...

Anyway, I posted this over at Sunday Morning QB a couple days ago, but I figured I might as well post it on some other blogs too...let me know what you think.

OFFSEASON PROJECT! Over at RMN, I've been playing with the `Beyond the Box Score' idea (calling it that as an ode to the wonderful SBN sabermetrics blog of the same name) as it applies to college football stats.

I've been cranking out play-by-plays for 2007 games as fast as possible--as I post for a Mizzou blog, I've focused on Big 12 teams, Mizzou opponents, and teams with fellow Heisman finalists--but this is a massive undertaking, and I need some volunteers to enter play-by-play for the games I have yet to enter from the 2007. They take about 30-45 minutes each, and I'm figuring I'll need about 6-10 volunteers to finish this stuff in a timely enough fashion to do something about it before the 2008 season starts orbiting everybody's attention span, so...actually, how about I just show you why I'm doing this?

It's fair to say that the Bill James Revolution has reshaped the game of baseball over the last 25-30 years (for some franchises, anyway...my Pirates sure haven't paid any attention). I'd go into detail about all the different statistics that have come about due to James and his disciples, but I'm going to be honest here--if you don't know/care about Bill James, then you probably won't care at all about this post.

The typical statline for a hitter hasn't changed much over the years. Chances are, when a guy is at bat, the stats they'll show on TV are Batting Average / HRs / RBIs. However, as thousands of words are spent in deciphering baseball stats each year, it's becoming more and more obvious that those categories--the last one in particular--are pretty worthless in evaluating the quality of a hitter. Who cares about a .300 batting average if it's all singles and it's not complemented by any walks or anything? Who cares about 25 HRs if you strike out 200 times and don't ever get on base otherwise? And who cares about 100 RBIs if it's complemented by a .225 average and only comes about because the guys in front of you are fantastic hitters?

Having a high number of RBIs does say something about your propensity for timely hits, but it says even more about the ability of the folks ahead of you to get on base. If the dude in front of you in the batting order has a .220 on-base %, you're probably not going to get too many RBIs no matter how good a hitter you are. It's the same way with touchdowns, really. Jerome Bettis's final season was great for my fantasy team, but his "2 carries, 3 yards, 2 TDs" lines really didn't contribute much to the team overall. I loved The Bus as much as the next guy, but just about anybody could have come in and plunged in from the 1. Getting the ball to the 1 was the much bigger accomplishment.

(Since I'm a Mizzou fan, you can probably gather that I wasn't all that impressed by Tim Tebow's "20 passing TDs/20 rushing TDs" stat that everybody was in love with since half his TDs came from a couple yards out and Chase Daniel could have done the same if he never handed the ball off either. That's true, but in the end I'd have probably voted for Tebow to win the Heisman anyway. You know...if I had a vote...)

I've been entering play-by-play for Big 12 games for the last two seasons, and I've been able to do a lot with the data...enough that I want to be able to do it with the entire country's data. The biggest thing I've accomplished so far is coming up with measures called EqPts (Equivalent Points) and PPP (EqPts per Play), based on the chart below, which shows the average number of points that could be expected from any specific yard line.

As you see, gains in certain areas of the field are worth different amounts. I did the same thing for each down.

So a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-5 from your opponent's 39 would only be worth about 0.19 points on the first graph, but it's worth a huge 2.24 points on the second one. Stuff like that is interesting to a nerd like me. And here's the most interesting part--averaging these two EqPts figures together, and adding in a measure of turnover costliness (into which I go into more detail in my Beyond the Box Score glossary), ends up doing a pretty good job of coming up with how many points were scored in a given game.

For instance...on December 1, Missouri beat Kansas, 36-28. MU's offense accounted for 29.47 EqPts (from the first graph) and 42.98 Down-Dependent EqPts (from the second). That averages out to 36.23. KU had 30.69 EqPts and 33.95 DD-EqPts, averaging 32.32. KU also had 6.83 points worth of turnovers (again, click the link above if you want information on that), and applying half of that to KU's score and half to MU's, you end up with an EqPts final score of MU 38.98, KU 28.91. Pretty damn close. On the same day, OU beat OSU, 49-17. The EqPts score was OU 47.88, OSU 15.65.

Of course, it doesn't always calculate closely--the ball's oblong and simply doesn't always bounce the way it's supposed to--but looking at things this way gives you a lot better indication of who accounted for a team's points than total yards or TDs or yards per carry.

For now, let's pretend that PPP is the football equivalent of Slugging %. What's the football equivalent of On-Base %? We'll get back to that in Part Two...if anybody's actually interested, anyway.

And if you want to help me enter play-by-plays, either shoot me a response on this thread with your e-mail address, or contact me at BillConnelly1@gmail.com. Thanks!