When I'm feeling pessimistic, I think about LSU's quarterback situation.  Yes, I have said that while the QBs are inexperienced, we have a great situation in which to incubate a young quarterback.  We have a solid and experienced offensive line, a dynamic running game, and very good receivers.

All of that is true, but let's look at the impact of the last part of that list.  And while we're doing it, let's go ahead and just assume, without proof, that our quarterback play will be substandard this year.  I know we don't know that will be true, but we also do not know that it won't be true.  Which is to say it very well could be true.

Do good receivers really elevate a mediocre quarterback?

I have no proof of this, but I really do not think good receivers elevate a mediocre quarterback.  I think the opposite is true.  A mediocre quarterback acts as a limit on good receivers, while a good quarterback can elevate mediocre receivers (and a good quarterback with good receivers can become magical).

Think about it.  While a good receiver can get open by half a step, it won't matter if the quarterback doesn't see him.  While a good receiver can make the great one-handed catch, it won't matter if the quarterback puts the ball where it can be swatted away by the defender.  While a good receiver can outrun the defensive back to the end zone, it won't matter if the quarterback can't throw it that far.

I've simply seen it enough where good receivers get frustrated by a quarterback who can't get the ball to them.  Not even Calvin Johnson was able to elevate the play of Reggie Ball, who completed less than 50% of his passes each year he and Calvin Johnson were on the field together.  And Calvin Johnson was largely considered the best wide receiver since Randy Moss.

Calvin Johnson got his stats, but Reggie Ball was still a weak QB.

Now, the dynamic running game and the very good offensive line will certainly help matters, but if Hatch, Lee, and Jefferson are substandard quarterbacks (and I'm not saying they are, but merely playing a hypothetical), that speed and skill on the outside will partially go to waste.

Even when I'm pessimistic, however, my spirits rise when I think of the impact of Richard Dickson.  While those outside receivers may not help a substandard QB, I think a rock solid inside receiver almost certainly will.  Dickson will go out and sit in creases in the zone, and should be reliably open and a big target.  It may not make for an imaginative offense, but it should be effective.

I just hope those QBs are good enough to get the ball to the playmakers on the outside reliably.

Two days ago, we profiled the first six games on the SEC schedule for this week.  Then Poseur did a follow-up.  No one pointed out that he misspelled "amok", however.  Today, we go through the last six, which has perhaps the most interesting matchup of the entire first week of the season regardless of conference.  And perhaps the 2nd most interesting matchup as well.

Saturday, 6:00pm Central:  Memphis vs. Ole Miss, no television

This is not a bad matchup, and I'm disappointed it's not on TV.  It's more exciting than Vandy vs. Miami (OH), and more exciting than MSU vs. La Tech, but oh well.  We do without.

I have gone on record as saying that I think Ole Miss will be a solid team this year.  Their first opportunity to embarrass me will come in this game.  These two teams play every year, and Ole Miss has won the last 3, but they've always played it tough.  Memphis is another of those teams that seems perpetually on the verge of being halfway decent, but never quite getting there.

This is a matchup of two teams that apparently feature rather good line play on both sides of the ball.  Some of Ole Miss's better linemen will miss the game with injuries, but if this Ole Miss team is ready to step up like I think, they should discard Memphis rather easily.  

Houston Nutt will get all the credit, but don't forget that Coach Orgeron put this team together personnel-wise.

Saturday, 6:00pm Central:  Western Illinois at Arkansas, no television

This is the stinkiest matchup of the week, as projected cellar-dweller Arkansas takes on FCS competition, and not even particularly good FCS competition.  Nothing will be learned about either.

Saturday, 6:00pm Central:  Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn, no television

The storyline for this game started last year, when ULM shocked Bama in what is probably the biggest win in its history.  It was simply a matter of Bama not showing up to play, as they were in the middle of an epic late-season collapse.  ULM didn't really look all that good in the game.  They were simply good enough to beat a team that looked like it wanted to be anywhere other than on a football field that particular day.

With ULM having beaten Bama, Auburn sets up some mild bragging rights, as they figure to easily trounce the Warhawks.  If this game was to be televised, you could get an early look at Auburn's new offense, and for that matter their new defense.  This is a game where they could work out the biggest and knottiest of the kinks, but the real tests come later.

Saturday, 7:00pm Central:  Bama vs. Clemson, neutral site, ABC

Easily the most interesting matchup in the SEC, or rather, it's the most interesting matchup that occurs before Monday.  In my opinion, a Monday college football game hardly even counts.

I'll be honest as I have been this whole offseason.  I think Bama is overmatched in this game.  Clemson has playmakers all over the offense, and Bama has to put together a front seven almost from scratch.  I'll tell you, I wouldn't want to go against James Davis and CJ Spiller if I was starting 3 new linebackers including at least one true freshman.  To make matters worse, Clemson is not strictly a running team, as they also have a quarterback and a receiver who would probably be All-SEC if they played in the SEC.

Glimmers of hope for Bama include the fact that Clemson has to break in a mostly new offensive line, but one wonders if Bama has the playmakers on the defensive line to take advantage.  

In addition to its explosive offense, Clemson has a very solid defensive unit as well, if you believe CFN.  While I do not always agree with CFN, in the absence of better information, I tend to go with them.  

The line on this game has remained close all offseason, but unless Clemson has a brain cramp, they appear to be clearly the better team right now.  It's never a good thing for the present to be highly reliant on incoming freshmen, and the pain will start here.  I think if Bama wins, it would be a very big upset.  I'm not saying it's impossible, but either Bama would have to be much better than I expect, Clemson much worse, or some strange confluence of events would have to combine to make this happen.

Oh, and if you want to get WAYYY too into the science of it all, check out this post at another site.

Sunday, 2:30pm Central:  Kentucky at Louisville, ESPN

This matchup is not what it used to be.  No wait.  It really is what it used to be.  It used to be a matchup of an average team against one of the worst teams in the SEC.  That's exactly what it is again.  

I am not a believer in Kentucky.  I think they went a long way with a group of player s who were seniors last year and are now gone and all but forgotten.  Andre Woodson, Jacob Tamme, Keenan Burton, Steve Johnson, and Raphael Little made up the core of Kentucky's best offense since Tim Couch was in town.  Heck, these guys might have been better than that group, but they're all gone.   The defense returns some starters, but is missing its best player from last year, LB Wesley Woodyard.

Louisville, for what it's worth, is coming off one of the most monumentally disappointing seasons in college football in 2007.  I am only mildly interested in this matchup.

Monday, 7:00pm Central:  Tennessee at UCLA, ESPN

Why is no one talking about this game?  Here we have the defending SEC East champs traveling all the way to the west coast to play a pretty decent team.  We have the debut of the golden boy, Rick Neuheisel, at UCLA and the hoped return to prominence for that franchise.  

Tennessee is just a criminally underhyped team this year.  They appear to be solid all around, and they're coming off a solid season.  They have one of the best running backs on the conference and a very strong offensive line.  They have good receivers and the best defensive back in the conference.  No one talks about them.

I'll be watching this game to see if I'm right about Tennessee.

Have you ever watched a game and wondered how and where announcers get all those rediculously tedious facts? Well, schools actually pay people to come up with them in their Sports Information or Media Relation departments. I've perused LSU's notes (PDF) and pulled a few tidbits I found interesting. Enjoy!

• Appalachian State is ranked No. 1 in the Football Championship Subdivision (I-AA). LSU has previously played one FCS No. 1-ranked team, beating Western Illinois 35-7 in 2003.
• Ranked sixth entering the season, this is the fifth consecutive year LSU has started in the top 10.
• August 30 has been a good day to start the season for LSU. Twice before, the Tigers have opened on Aug. 30 -- in 2003 and 2007, the years of their last two national championships.
• In recent history, CollegeFootballNews.com has said that nobody throttles a mediocre team like LSU. It's one of my favorite quotes. At least in the non-conference that appears to be true. In 14 non-conference games under Les Miles, the Tigers are unbeaten with an average score of 35.6 to 8.1. That includes non-conference games against top 15 teams in Arizona State, Miami, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
• Since 2003, LSU has 56 wins, the second most in the nation. Yeah, those bastards USC have the most, 58. Since Miles took over in 2005, the Tigers and Trojans are tied with 34. More importantly, LSU has a pair of crystal footballs in that span.
• People like to jump on Les Miles gameday coaching ability, but an 11-3 record in games decided by seven points or less seems pretty good to me. He's 4-2 when it's three points or less.
• More on Miles. He's 7-3 when trailing after three quarters. That's right, he's won 70 percent of his games at LSU when trailing going into the final quarter. He's even better (8-3) when trailing at the half. All you people who think Les doesn't know what he's doing can shut up now.

I started writing this column on Sunday night, before I knew that JP/LF/Raycom would be no more starting next year.  It remains to be seen if this will mean more SEC sports on television or less, but I'm going to go with less.

ESPN will have rights to every SEC home football game not on the network package and all league matchups will be shown on some outlet, including at least 20 a year on ESPN or ESPN2. That includes two primetime Thursday night matchups and Saturday night games.

This means that ESPN and ESPN2 will have to air about the same number of games they air now.  One per week, with occasionally a second on a Thursday night or on ESPN2.  It also means that all SEC (home) games will be available at least on Pay-Per-View arrangements with ESPN.  

I think this means less will be available for free, because why should ESPNU broadcast an 11:30 game between Florida and Mississippi State when they can just put it on Pay-Per-View and rake in the central Florida money?  I think this means the 11:30 matchup is a dying breed, and I for one will miss it. 

SEC fans make a sport of mocking the JP/LF/Raycom telecast, and let's be honest, there is much to mock.  The production value is rather poor, rivaling Tigervision for its cheapness of quality.  But Tigervision is not regionally broadcast, and hardly anyone sees it unless they're desperate to watch LSU.  Not so with JP/LF/Raycom.

But there is much to be said in favor of the morning game.  Let's recount:

1.  It's on.  Once the season gets in full swing, CBS will be broadcasting one game per week in the afternoon, and ESPN will be broadcasting one or perhaps two in the evening after that.  In the morning and early afternoon, it's either Raycom or watch a Big 10 game.  No one else seems to be clamoring to show Ole Miss vs. South Carolina, but I want to see it, darnit.

Yes, it's morning football, and there's something sub-optimal about that, but without morning football, there would be no football on in the morning.  And with morning football, I can watch 3 games on a Saturday, whereas without it I can watch only 2.

2.  I think the announcers are really pretty good.  I think the Daves love SEC football, and they know a lot about it.  This is what they do more or less full time, and while Verne Lundquist will be calling some horse race or something on Sunday, Dave Archer and Dave Baker and whoever the other guy is will go home and prepare for the next week's game.  

3.  Sometimes, LSU is playing on it when they otherwise would not be on television.  Yes, I know this is maddening to people who go to the games and have to end their tailgate before lunch, but for those of us who would not be going to it (such as me), the choice is either watch it at 11:30am on Raycom or don't watch it at all.  These are games that ESPN and CBS do not want.  I, however, want them.

4.  They're supposedly going to be broadcast in HD this year, or perhaps in future years in other conferences that show the games.  Heck, I could do without HD.  In fact, I don't have an HD television.  But it sure will be nice to just have a better picture.  The picture quality really has been about 30 years behind the state of the art for quite some time.  Maybe the average fan will see an improvement too.  But now that ESPN is taking over, why should Raycom upgrade its equipment for just one year?

I will miss these broadcasts.  Or at least, I will if ESPN doesn't replace them with something else that is equally accessible to me. 

UPDATE by Purple Reign (2:54 p.m. 8/26/08): In terms of the availability, Ray Melick of the Birmingham News had this to say:

But the money pales in comparison to the exposure. The CBS/ESPN combined deals guarantee that every home football game an SEC school plays will be available on some form of TV.

Just in case you can't get your mind fixed on what that means, look at it this way. This weekend, the first weekend of the college football season, there are two games that are not on any kind of television at all - Louisiana Monroe at Auburn and Western Illinois at Arkansas.

Under the terms of this new SEC television package, that would not happen.

As great as the exposure is for football, it is even a sweeter deal for SEC basketball. Every regular season men's conference game will now be on TV, tripling the amount of TV time SEC basketball now gets. It is a level of exposure that should put SEC basketball on par with that seemingly never-ending broadcast stream of games from the Big East and the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Personally, I think this is a pretty sweet gig for the league. Sure I'll miss JP and making fun of Dave Neal always seeming to work "EEEEEllliiiiiiiiiiii Manning" into a broadcast, but the exposure is going to be insane.

I would imagine this means ESPN is going to make a major push to get ESPNU on basic cable in more markets, particularly in the south and this is the carrot they're dangling. Sure a couple games will end up on ESPN GamePlan, but I have to believe there will be at least as many available to the regular TV watcher (i.e. Richard Pittman) and a plethora to people with the HD package, Sports Package and GamePlan (i.e. Me).

Part 2 of Time to Bloviate will wait until tomorrow, as yesterday the LSU coaches released a depth chart, and it's time to talk about it.  Try as I might, I could not find any kind of a graphical rendition of the depth chart except this one at Tigerbait, which is incomplete.

Some notes:

• As expected, the unofficial depth chart did not name a starting QB.  What's more, Les Miles said he expects all 3 to play.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that by the end of the season Jordan Jefferson will be getting the 2nd most snaps of all the QBs.  I just don't know who'll be getting the most.
• Also as expected, Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, and Richard Murphy were named co-starters at running back.
• Terrance Toliver was named the starter at the 3rd receiver position, which is to say he appears to have won the job as the #3 receiver.  Don't be fooled by the fact that he does not appear on that depth chart as shown.  He's the #3 guy, and he'll play a lot.  That chart shows the #1 and the #2 and shows who is backing up them.
• Mitch Joseph is listed as the #2 tight end.
• True Freshman Greg Shaw appears to have won the battle to be the #2 left tackle behind Ciron Black, a position formerly held by Jarvis Jones.  For the 2nd straight year, a true freshman is going to be our backup left tackle.
• As expected, Patrick Peterson is the backup cornerback behind Jai Eugene, and with the expected rotation there, he could play quite a bit even if he doesn't overtake the starter.
• Chad Jones is listed as backup safety, but again expect him to stay on the field for most plays.
• Ryan Baker is the third true freshman to make it to the 2-deep, as he will be the backup weakside linebacker, behind Kelvin Sheppard.
• Les Miles says he expects a lot of true freshmen to play, especially on special teams.

No big surprises there.  We pretty much knew that Peterson was running with the 2s, and we knew Shaw was in the mix at LT.  We didn't know that Ryan Baker had flown up the depth charts so quickly.  The big "depth chart" news will come when we find out who will be the starting quarterback, but we won't get that until Thursday, and even then it won't be final.

We're trying to set a record here for most posts in a day at ATVS.

Friend of the blog and frequent commentor, LSUJoshua, had the privilege of writing the LSU preview for EDSBS. 

LSU is crystal clear, as in our two BCS trophies and how it’s obvious by now that Les Miles knows more than you about coaching football. Make excuses or downplay all you want. Simple fact of the matter is that LSU among the tippy top of cfb elite and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, thanks largely to Miles’ ability to out recruit and out coach the rocket scientist you pay a South America defense budget for.

It's appropriately egotistical and triumphant.  And what's wrong with that?  We've won two titles in the past five years, I think a little bit of woofing is in order.  What good are those two crystal trophies if we can't rub people's faces in it every once in awhile?  Know who else has two BCS titles?

That's right.  Nobody. 

 

It's finally GameWeek! It seems like forever since Les Miles hoisted the crystal football on the floor of the Superdome. As much as I'd like to revel in that glory forever, it's much more fun to try and do it again. And what better place to begin than with the "other" Division I national champion last year, Appalachian State.

The Mountaineers, in case you know nothing other than they beat Michigan, are the three-time defending Division I-AA national champs. That's right, these guys know how to win. And despite returning only 12 starters, they're not expected to see any drop off, ranked No. 1 in the preseason.

Each week, I'll try to, not necessarily preview LSU's opponent, but bring you some of the chatter about the team from around the country. I'm sure someone will give you a "Know Your Opponent" later in the week, so  I'll be confine myself to others hyping the team.

As most teams do, Appalachian State is attempting to get its team ready to play in Death Valley.

ASU assistant coach John Holt, the former Erwin High standout who played guard for the Mountaineers the past four seasons, experienced playing in Death Valley in 2005.

He has advice for young players, especially those that didn’t play at Michigan last season.

“It’s an awesome experience,” he said. “But you have to take that stadium and those fans out of it.

Good Luck.

Clearly, junior quarterback Armanti Edwards is ASU's best and most dynamic playmaker. If he puts on a show on Saturday, it could lead to the biggest Heisman hype for a I-AA player since Steve McNair.

The buzz of a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate has been attached to his name.

So Appalachian State officials already have set up a weekly teleconference personally for Edwards, to accommodate interview requests this year.

"If he continues to play at the level he has, I think he deserves the opportunity to be on those Heisman lists," Mountaineers coach Jerry Moore said. "We're being premature right now, but when the coffee shop talk starts up, he'd be deserving of being in that conversation."

Let's hope that campaign doesn't get a jumpstart on Saturday.

Three years ago, Appalachian State head coach Jerry Moore was almost, if you can believe it, fired. The previous season, he had switched to the spread offense and gone 6-5.

``I said, 'Coach, we need to talk about this before the season starts,''' [athletic director Charlie] Cobb said. ``He said, 'Charlie, I'm going to coach somewhere next year. If I'm not wanted here, you and I will both know. You won't have to come to me.'''

The Mountaineers had only four home games in 2005 and visited two major schools, Kansas and LSU. After starting 3-2, Cobb felt Moore deserved more time, and told him he wanted to extend his contract.

``I believed in him,'' Cobb said.

The rest, as Moore describes it, is a ``fairy tale.'' Appalachian went 9-1 the rest of the season - the only loss coming to LSU - and won its first national championship.

Success breeds success and nowhere is that more evident than in tiny Boone, N.C. Last year, ASU averaged 24,219 fans per game, that's more than 33 (PDF) Division I-A teams, including three in the state of Louisiana. Now they're joining the arms race.

"People are excited about coming to Boone on Saturdays," Cobb said. "We've had great cooperation from the university in terms of things like parking and the town has embraced us. People are coming. They want to be part of it."

Cobb said that applications for enrollment at ASU have risen from about 10,000 three years ago to 15,500 this year. The operating budget for athletics has gone from about $7.5 million to almost $12 million in that span.

Every team has vulnerabilities, one of them being susceptibility to injuries.  While we have a lot of talent all over the field, there are positions where lack of depth will make us particularly vulnerable.  If we have to replace a key player with a true freshman, that will be a problem.  Here is my list of the 5 players we can least afford to lose significant time:

1.  Ciron Black, OT:  He's quite a good left tackle, and we currently have little idea who his backup is.  Plan A for backing up Ciron "CB" Black was sophomore Jarvis Jones, but he was expelled from the team and is now at Oklahoma.  That leaves LSU with only one experienced backup offensive lineman, Ryan Miller.  He backs up every position except left tackle.  The depth among young players is admirable in the interior line, but not at the tackle positions, where the loss of Marc Snyder to injury really hurt.  If Ciron Black gets hurt, we'd probably have to move Joseph Barksdale over from right tackle, his natural position, and insert Miller at right tackle.  Or, we'd have to play a true freshman a lot of snaps.

2.  Colt David, PK:  He's developed into an All-SEC field goal kicker, and the two sophomores behind him have been disappointing at kickoffs while not attempting any actual placekicks for points.  If David is somehow lost, which I know would be unusual for a kicker, but not unheard of, extra points and short field goals could become an adventure.

3.  Darry Beckwith, LB:  He's our best linebacker, and our most experienced starter.  He's the only linebacker on the team that is unlikely to come off the field while a game is still in doubt.  The backup (Jacob Cutrera) is actually pretty experienced, but the drop-off in skill is substantial, and Beckwith's leadership at the linebacker position is essential.  Unfortunately, Beckwith has a history of injuries, and we would be fortunate to have him healthy for the entire season.  Stranger things have happened, though.

4.  Ricky Jean-Francois, DT:  The depth here is very solid, but Jean-Francois is definitely the playmaker of the group.  While his replacement would be pretty good if he were to get hurt, his replacement wouldn't be anywhere near as disruptive as Ricky Jean-Francois.  He's expected to be one of the key playmakers of the defense, and one of the ones who can get consistent pressure on a quarterback.  He needs to be on the field as much as possible, while still of course rotating him out enough to stay fresh, as I've preached many times for defensive linemen.

5.  Richard Dickson, TE:  The big passing target is going to be an important outlet for our young quarterbacks all season long.  If they struggle to get the ball to the outside, Dickson will be there finding holes in the zone and giving them a big target to throw to.  There is no receiving tight end to speak of behind him, and no receiver quite like him on the team, so he is going to be an essential part of the offense.

So, that's my five.  I could have easily picked a couple of other players instead, but if you're going to go with the round number of five, this is my group.  Honorable mention include Curtis Taylor, Brandon Lafell, and Tyson Jackson.